The government model suggests that cases of U.S. COVID-19 could exceed 100 million
According to a model developed by government researchers, the real number of coronavirus infections in the U.S. reached almost 53 million at the end of September and maybe up to 100 million now. The model, developed by scientists at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, determined that the actual number of infections is approximately eight times the number reported, which only includes cases confirmed by a laboratory test.
At the United Memorial Medical Center COVID-19 testing site on Nov. 19, in Houston, a healthcare worker processes individuals in line. As the number of hospitalized COVID-19 patients grows, Texas is rushing millions of additional medical staff to overworked hospitals.
According to a model developed by government researchers, the real number of coronavirus infections in the U.S. reached almost 53 million at the end of September and maybe up to 100 million now. The model, developed by scientists at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, determined that the actual number of infections is approximately eight times the number reported, which only includes cases confirmed by a laboratory test.
Preliminary estimates using the model showed that 52.9 million individuals had been infected by the end of September, while the number of laboratory-confirmed infections was only 6.9 million, the team published in the Nov. 25 issue of the Clinical Infectious Diseases journal.
"This indicates that approximately 84 percent of the U.S. population has not yet been infected and thus most of the country remains at risk," the authors wrote. The CDC's count of confirmed infections has risen to 12.5 million since then. So if the ratio of the model still holds, the approximate number will now be greater than 95 million, leaving uninfected about 71 percent of the population. The model seeks to take into account the fact that most COVID-19 cases are mild or asymptomatic and go unreported.
To estimate how many infections were undetected, scientists used studies searching for people who have coronavirus antibodies in their blood-an an indicator that they were infected at some time. Some of these antibody studies have shown that only about one in 10 infections with coronavirus have been identified. The purpose was to "better quantify the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the healthcare system and society," the authors wrote, in designing the model. The model also predicted that more than a third of the people hospitalized with COVID-19 are not included in the official counts.